Climate Projections

Do you need help determining future climate conditions for your community?

Our scientists collaborate with the nation’s leading climate modelers to bring to you the most useful and up-to-date information for your local area. This data is provided as maps, graphs, reports, and dynamic online presentations that are easy to read and understand. We have the knowledge and relationships needed to navigate complex model output and ever-changing data availability. All of our local projections reports are accompanied by explanations of model uncertainty, geographic resolution, and information about what the models are telling us. We also provide information on climate change at the national and global scale.

A community can select from the following options for local climate projections (Climate Ready Communities subscribers receive 5% discount off prices shown and in quotations).

Geos Institute staff will work to understand a community’s needs before advising on options to include in a climate projection report. Please contact Christina Mills at christina@geosinstitute.org to learn more.

Base Set of Projections ($5,000)

The base set of climate projections includes 8 temperature and precipitation variables analyzed across historic, mid-century, and late-century time periods. Projections will be developed for an area chosen by the client. Some geographic options include a county, multiple adjacent counties, or a watershed.

The Base Projection Report includes:

  • Table showing changes in temperature and precipitation from baseline values: mean annual, summer, and winter temperature, mean annual, summer and winter precipitation, precipitation as snow (if applicable), and climate moisture deficit (drought stress).
  • Four community maps displaying annual and summer temperature, annual and winter precipitation
  • RCP 8.5 Emissions pathway (continued higher emissions)
  • A dynamic, interactive online presentation. The dynamic presentation is a condensed, user friendly version of the written report that helps to explain the meaning of the results. Because it only takes a few minutes to view, the dynamic presentation is a powerful outreach tool for planning teams to share information about the local impacts of climate change.

The Base Projection Report does not include:

  • Sea level rise projections
  • Synthesis of best available science summarizing the associated impacts of climate projections on ecological and socioeconomic systems of interest

Custom Projections (per quotation, typically in the $8,000-$15,000 range)

Custom projections include:

  • Base and additional derived variables* (see below) presented in maps, graphs, or tables
  • Two emissions pathways (RCP 8.5 higher emissions and RCP 4.5 lower emissions)
  • Synthesis of best available science summarizing the associated impacts of climate projections on ecological and socioeconomic systems of interest
  • Presentation of the findings to the community, with Q&A; recorded to allow re-streaming
  • Training and consultation on communicating the science associated with the projections, uncertainty of climate modelling in local planning processes, and information about appropriate uses of the data. Note: consulting hours may also be used for this purpose.
  • A dynamic, interactive online presentation. The dynamic presentation is a condensed, user friendly version of the written report that helps to explain the meaning of the results.

*Depending on the availability of data, variables can include:

  • Temperature (annual mean, maximum, and minimum, seasonal and monthly, warmest/coldest month temperature compared to baseline values)
  • Precipitation (snow and/or rain, as seasonal, monthly, and annual totals and percent change from baseline)
  • Humidity (relative, annual and summer heat-moisture indices)
  • Sea level rise (including coastal inundation, erosion)
  • Hydrology (percent change in snowpack, streamflow, runoff, and drought stress)
  • Vegetation and wildfire (projected change in biomass consumed and area burned by wildfire, as well as carbon storage)
  • Agriculture (day of the year frost begins and ends, and length of frost-free period)
  • Frequency and severity of extreme events (heat waves, droughts, and freezing temperatures)

Semi-Custom Projections ($10,000)

Semi-custom projections include the following:

  • Selection of 15 derived variables including: mean annual, summer and winter temperature, mean annual, summer, and winter precipitation, precipitation as snow, climatic moisture deficit (drought stress), mean warmest month temperature, mean coldest month temperature, extreme maximum temperature, number of frost free days, length of frost free period, beginning of frost free period, end of frost free period. Other variables available on request. All variables presented as mid- and long-term change from baseline.
  • Two emissions pathways (RCP 8.5 higher emissions and RCP 4.5 lower emissions)
  • Eight community maps displaying mean annual, summer, and winter temperature, mean annual, summer, and winter precipitation, precipitation as snow, and climatic moisture deficit. Sea Level Rise will also be mapped for coastal communities.
  • In-depth presentation to a live audience from the community, with Q&A following; recorded to allow community re-streaming as needed
  • A dynamic, interactive online presentation. The dynamic presentation is a condensed, user friendly version of the written report that helps to explain the meaning of the results.

For an additional $3,500, semi-custom projections can be upgraded to include

  • Synthesis of best available science summarizing the associated impacts of climate projections on ecological and socioeconomic systems of interest
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Geos Institute

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